The latest forecast from the Metallurgical Industry Planning Institute shows that China's 2026 steel demand will be approximately 800 million tons, down 1.0% year-on-year, with the industry PMI below the 50% threshold for two consecutive months.
Demand Side:In 2025, national crude steel output reached 961 million tons, down 4.4% year-on-year. Key steel enterprises achieved total profits of 115.1 billion yuan, a 1.4x year-on-year increase, reversing from a 44.5 billion yuan loss to profitability.
Supply Side:The 2025 Enterprise Competitiveness Rating results: 16 steel enterprises including China Baowu, CITIC Pacific Special Steel, Shougang, Ansteel, HBIS, and Nangang were rated A+ (extremely strong) in competitiveness.
Cost Pressure:Ten steel enterprises received AAA ESG ratings: Baosteel, Shougang, Angang Steel, Nangang, CITIC Pacific Special Steel, TISCO, HBIS, Masteel, Jingye Group, and Shangang.
Market Outlook:The industry's main theme is reducing crude steel output while increasing refined steel. Demand is expected to weaken further, but cost-side support limits significant price declines. Galaxy Futures sees the steel industry shifting from "scale expansion" to "quality and efficiency," with high-end, green, and intelligent development as the direction.
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Pengcheng Steel